     |
Economy Is Strong |
| Economic gains since 2000 | |
| After tax per capita income increase $3700 | |
| New Jobs Created-8.2 Million | |
| Successive Months of Job Growth 52-a record | |
| Lower Unemployment Average of Last 30 years-4.9% | |
| Richest 1% of Taxpayers Jumped From 14% To 20% From 1990-2000 | |
| Richest 1% of Taxpayers Jumped Only From 20% To 21.2% From 2000-2005 | |
| Share of Taxes Paid By Top 1% in 2000 37.4% | |
| Share of Taxes Paid By Top 1% in 2005 39.4% | |
| Tax Reductions Proportionately Higher For The Middle Class Than The Rich | |
| Highest Bracket Cut 39.6% To 35%=11.6% | |
| Lowest Bracket Cut 15% To 10%=33.3% | |
| 2ND Lowest Bracket Cut 28 To 15%=46.4% | |
| 3RD Lowest Bracket Cut 31 To 25%=19.3% | |
| 2ND Highest Bracket Cut 36 To 28%=22.2% |
U.S. Treasury WSJ 12-17-2007
The charlatans convincing the hangers on that they've been victimized are smooth talking. Talking artfully is what they do for a living, they get to practice and perfect the skill of smooth talking and perfecting what George Orwell called "newspeak" in his book, 1984, which featured such slogans as "War Is Peace","Freedom is Slavery", "Ignorance is Strength"
Hillary Clinton's "Excellent Adventure in Bosnia" has given us a new word that is perfect for the Newspeak Library. Hillary had a "misspoke", present tense "misspeak."
So while the nanny-state's incessant drumbeat of negativity is always with us because of the cooperation of the Mainstream Media's devotion to it, let's examine some facts to see if this economy is as bad as the daily drumbeat that tells us it is.
Not a single gain or positive of the last 6 years ever gets even a murmur.
Do Americans even know how much more their after tax income is, compared to what it was it 2000?
Per capita is up $3700 for every man woman and child. This means a family of four now has on the average $14,500 more than it did, adjusted for inflation.
Unemployment is so much lower than it was under Bill Clinton, it's not even close, a full percentage point lower and lower than the average of the last 30 years. That means millions more working and being productive, compared to what it would be if the unemployment rate was the same as it was under Bill Clinton.
That rate was actually good under Bill Clinton, an improvement over many previous years. He got and deserved credit for it, but Democrats are doing the opposite because a better performance under a Republican can never deserve as much credit as a lesser performance under a nanny-state leader.
The last two months have seen a small decline in new jobs after 52 months of uninterrupted job growth – the longest period on record. Our economy has added nearly one million jobs over the last 12 months, and more than 8.2 million since August 2003.
Because the nanny-state, leftist policies are almost always harmful, we have higher gas prices, higher health insurance premiums, higher costs of education including college, higher food prices and other costs that are higher because of government interference, regulations, waste, incompetence before even discussing higher taxes always pushed for by Democrats.
As for gas prices, the environmental extremists are almost totally responsible for gas prices and that movement is almost a totally leftist Democrat backing interest group.
Is there ever a day when when Democrats do not decry cruel Republicans for not committing more money to what most of the time turns out to give the country its present nightmare.
The Comptroller General is on a “Fiscal Wake Up Tour” practically pleading with Americans to realize a spending tsunami is at this very moment carrying us toward very negative factors.
Notice, not tax cuts but spending, especially entitlements is what the Comptroller General is touring about.
There will be much more data coming forth on this site on a regular basis regarding the positives of the economy since the 2003 tax cuts and plenty of data to show the news is nowhere near as bad as Democrats are portraying it.
Consumer Price Index +0.4% Jan 2008
Unemployment Rate 4.8% Feb 2008
Payroll Employment -63,000(p) Feb 2008
Average Hourly Earnings +$0.05(p) Feb 2008
Jan 2008 Productivity +1.9% 4th Qtr 2007
Jan 2008 Unemployment Initial (UI) Claims 351,000 Mar 1 2008
UI Claims 4-Week Average 359,500 Mar 1 2008
Center for Constitutional Government
Sunrise review laws protect entrepreneurs
Jennifer Perkins
Goldwater Institute
February 27, 2008
Full article To Jennifer Perkins Goldwatwer Institute
Excerpts:
As Ronald Reagan famously noted, “Entrepreneurs and their small enterprises are responsible for almost all the economic growth in the United States.” Why is it, then, that every year we see more proposed government regulations that make it harder for small businesses to open and operate?
Senate Bill 1502 could help address this regulatory creep: It would require the legislature to conduct a “sunrise review” process before erecting new regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. Sunrise reviews require proponents of a regulation to demonstrate an actual need for it before the legislature may adopt it.
Sunrise requirements in other states have effectively caused lawmakers to scrutinize proposed regulations and reject government overreaching. For example, every state with a sunrise process that has considered regulating interior designers has ended up deciding against it because those seeking the regulations fail to provide evidence that regulation would benefit the public. On the other hand, in states without sunrise requirements, interior design regulations have been adopted with limited legislative scrutiny.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2007 (PRELIMINARY)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and propertylocated in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007,according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter,real GDP increased 4.9 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available forthe advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was also 0.6percent.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions frompersonal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential structures, state and local governmentspending, and equipment and software that were largely offset by negative contributions from privateinventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in thecalculation of GDP, decreased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn ininventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in federal government spending thatwere partly offset by a downturn in imports.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.16 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in realGDP after contributing 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle outputsubtracted 0.85 percentage point from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.36percentage point to the third-quarter growth.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unlessotherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between thesepublished estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized."Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
Economy
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.1 percentage point more than in the advance estimate; thisindex increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index forgross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, comparedwith an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.9 percent,compared with an increase of 9.3 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 14.7 percent, comparedwith an increase of 16.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 3.3 percent, compared with anincrease of 6.2 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 25.2 percent, compared with adecrease of 20.5 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with anincrease of 19.1 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 1.9 percent, incontrast to an increase of 4.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.9 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 7.1 percent in the third. National defense decreased 0.3percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.1 percent. Nondefense increased 3.4 percent, compared with anincrease of 1.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and grossinvestment increased 3.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 1.49 percentage points from the fourth-quarterchange in real GDP, after adding 0.89 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businessesdecreased inventories $10.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $30.6 billion in the thirdquarter and $5.8 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.1percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the third.
Economy
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services whereverproduced -- decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.3 percent in thethird.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased3.3 percent, or $113.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,084.1 billion. In the third quarter,current-dollar GDP increased 6.0 percent, or $201.7 billion.
2007 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2007 (that is, from the 2006 annual level to the 2007 annuallevel), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2006.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2007 were personal consumptionexpenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Thesepositive contributions were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and in inventoryinvestment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP primarily reflected a larger decrease in residential fixed investment,a downturn in private inventory investment, and a deceleration in equipment and software that werepartly offset by a deceleration in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.7 percent in 2007, compared with anincrease of 3.3 percent in 2006.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $649.1 billion, in 2007. Current-dollar GDPincreased 6.1 percent, or $760.8 billion, in 2006.
During 2007 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007), realGDP increased 2.5 percent. Real GDP increased 2.6 percent during 2006. The price index for grossdomestic purchases increased 3.3 percent during 2007, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent during2006.
Economy
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting thesite, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- March 27, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2007 (Final) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter 2007
###
Right-click to download Real World Economics: For High School Seniors College Students and New Entrants To The Workforce.
It's Free-It's Instant
You will need Adobe Reader (the latest version is recommended) installed on your computer in order to open and read this ebook. You can get Adobe Reader here (a new window will open so you can download it without leaving this page).
If you want to open the file in your browser window, just click on the link. However, if you want to download the file to view later, then right-click on the link and choose "Save Target As" if you are using Internet Explorer or "Save Link As" if you are using Mozilla. Some Browsers use "Save File as" Then select where you want to save the file on your hard drive.
Once you have saved the file, locate where you saved it, and double click to open.
One of the main features is an outline of a plan for getting 25 to 30 year olds elected to congress.
This is in no way an endorsement of Ron Paul. The importance of it is that running for congress is realistic for any eligible person who has the right message.
Consumer Confidence Plunges While Wholesale Inflation Rises at Fastest Pace in 26 Years
Consumer confidence and home prices saw sharp declines while basics such as food, energy and medicine were areas causing wholesale inflation to rise at the fastest pace since late 1981.
January prices rose 1% due mostly to a rise in the prices of energy, food and prescription drugs. This followed a report last week that consumer prices had risen by a bigger-than-expected 0.4 percent because of price pressures in the same areas.
During the last year wholesale prices rose by 7.4 percent, the largest yearly increase since late 1981.
Unemployment Rate 4.9% Jan 2008
Payroll Employment -17,000(p) Jan 2008
Average Hourly Earnings +$0.04(p) Jan 2008
4th Qtr 2007 Productivity +1.8% Jan 2008
Unemployment Initial (UI) Claims 348,000 Feb 9 2007
Right-click to download Real World Economics: For High School Seniors College Students and New Entrants To The Workforce.
It's Free-It's Instant
You will need Adobe Reader (the latest version is recommended) installed on your computer in order to open and read this ebook. You can get Adobe Reader here (a new window will open so you can download it without leaving this page).
If you want to open the file in your browser window, just click on the link. However, if you want to download the file to view later, then right-click on the link and choose "Save Target As" if you are using Internet Explorer or "Save Link As" if you are using Mozilla. Some Browsers use "Save File as" Then select where you want to save the file on your hard drive.
Once you have saved the file, locate where you saved it, and double click to open.
One of the main features is an outline of a plan for getting 25 to 30 year olds elected to congress.
This is in no way an endorsement of Ron Paul. The importance of it is that running for congress is realistic for any eligible person who has the right message.
UI Claims 4-Week Average
Retail Sales Rebound in January, Up 0.3 Pct. Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008
The Commerce Department reported on February 13, that retail sales rose by 0.3 percent last month. Sales had fallen by 0.4 percent in December, leading to their worst Christmas shoppingseason in five years for retailers. There was an increase in the demand for new cars and a big jump in sales at gasoline service stations, which reflected higher pump prices.
The January performance was a pleasant surprise. Analysts were forecasting a 0.3 percent decline for the month. The January rebound may not last it is believed, due to mostly to the slump in housing, to job losses and a severe credit squeeze.
Consumer spending, is being closely watched for signals of whether the country is falling into a recession.
Retailers experienced more evidence of a weakening economy Thursday, as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., among others, reported weak January results, extending a slowdown that has deepened since the holiday shopping season.
Consumers facing high gas and food prices, a slumping housing market, an escalating credit crisis and a weakening job market pulled back further, mostly on necessities.
Among the few winners was Costco Wholesale Corp., whose results beat Wall Street expectations.
Wal-Mart, reported a 0.5 percent gain in same-store sales, or business at stores open at least a year. Analysts had expected a 2.0 percent increase.
But Costco reported a 7 percent gain in same-store sales.
Limited Brands reported an 8 percent drop in same-store sales in January, less than the 6.9 percent forecast.
Pacific Sunwear experienced a 7.4 percent drop in same-store sales; Expectations were for a 1.2 percent rise.
Wet Seal Inc.'s January same-store sales fell 5.7 percent. A 1.5 percent decline had been forecasted by analysts.
© 2008 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2007 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and propertylocated in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007,according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, realGDP increased 4.9 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data thatare incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will bereleased on February 28, 2008.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions frompersonal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential structures, state and local governmentspending, exports, and equipment and software that were largely offset by negative contributions fromprivate inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in thecalculation of GDP, increased slightly.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn ininventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in federal government spending thatwere partly offset by a deceleration in imports and an acceleration in state and local governmentspending.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in realGDP after contributing 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle outputsubtracted 0.90 percentage point from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.36percentage point to the third-quarter growth.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes arecalculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars.Price indexes are chain-type measures.
From: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
GDP and the Economy: Final Estimates for the Third Quarter of 2007Real GDP increased 4.9 percent after increasing 3.8 percent in the second quarter. Exports, consumer spending, and inventory investment all accelerated. Corporate profits turned down.
From: Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council (SBE)
Stimulating the Economy
January 9, 2008
The Entrepreneurial View #466
Economic "Stimulus"?
by Raymond J. Keating
Full article Full Article Describes Real Stimulis Not Nanny-State Nonsense
Excerpts:
With the economic waters getting rougher - and many now expecting a recession in 2008 - there's a good deal of talk about an "economic stimulus" package coming out of our nation's capital.
Can government actually "stimulate" the economy away from or out of recession? Of course not.
Unfortunately, many have been laboring under this misnomer since John Maynard Keynes misled the economics profession regarding government's so-called management of aggregate demand, and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt got it wrong on the political and policy fronts in the 1930s. Keep in mind, while FDR gets credit in some circles for guiding the U.S. out of the Great Depression, in reality, the U.S. economy did not recover until after World War II.
The best government can do is establish the proper policy climate in which entrepreneurs and investors can take risks, grow the economy, and create jobs. It is private sector investment, innovation, invention, efficiency and productivity that spur the economy forward, not government.
Therefore, many of the "economic stimulus" ideas being kicked around right now will either do nothing to boost the economy, or will actually inflict further damage.
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS
NOVEMBER 2007
Personal income increased $43.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $110.6 billion, or 1.1 percent. In October,personal income increased $24.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $17.0 billion, or 0.2 percent,and PCE increased $39.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $36.0 billion in November, in contrast to adecrease of $1.3 billion in October. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $6.2 billion, incontrast to a decrease of $2.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, in contrast to adecrease of $1.2 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $29.8 billion, comparedwith an increase of $1.0 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.0 billion,the same increase as in October.
EconomyOther personal income
Supplements to wages and salaries increased $6.0 billion in November, compared with anincrease of $4.4 billion in October.
Proprietors' income increased $7.2 billion in November, compared with an increase of $3.7billion in October. Farm proprietors' income increased $0.5 billion, compared with an increase of$0.6 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $6.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1billion.
Rental income of persons increased $1.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of$2.2 billion in October. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personaldividend income) increased $2.5 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion. Personal currenttransfer receipts decreased $9.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.6 billion. The Novemberchange reflects a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments; the reductionreflects the annual reconciliation of estimated and actual prescription drug costs.
Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --increased $5.1 billion in November, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in October.
Personal current taxes and disposable personal income
Personal current taxes increased $10.3 billion in November, compared with an increase of $7.8billion in October. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes-- increased $32.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, compared with an increase of $17.0 billion,or 0.2 percent, in October.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer paymentsincreased $111.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of $41.0 billion in October. PCEincreased $110.6 billion, compared with an increase of $39.4 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $48.4 billion in November, incontrast to a positive $30.7 billion in October. Personal saving as a percentage of disposablepersonal income was a negative 0.5 percent in November, in contrast to a positive 0.3 percent inOctober. Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing(including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments orother assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on"Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site.
Real DPI and real PCE
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in November,compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in October.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in November,compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in October. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.6percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.6percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent,compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.
The price index for PCE increased 0.6 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.3percent in October; most of the November increase was accounted for by increases in energy prices.The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as inOctober.
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.9 percent, or $198.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $13,967.3 billion.
In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $216.9 billion.
Gross national product
Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 5.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the second.
GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $20.6 billion in the third quarter after increasing $5.8 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $29.1 billion, and payments increased $8.5 billion.
###
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2007
GDP increase Second Quarter 3.8 percent.
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data thatare incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The third-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on November 29,2007.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, federal government spending, equipment and software, nonresidential structures, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The slight acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in PCE and in exports that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.29 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.21 percentage point to the second-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.33 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.03 percentage point to the second-quarter growth.
Economy
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwisespecified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5 percent. Services expenditures increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with anincrease of 11.0 percent in the second. Nonresidential structures increased 12.3 percent, compared with an increase of 26.2 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 20.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 11.8 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 16.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 5.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.7 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 6.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.0 percent in the second. National defense increased 9.7 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent. Nondefense increased 0.9 percent, the same increase as in the second. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 0.36 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.22 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $15.7 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $5.8 billion in the second quarter and $0.1 billion in the first.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second.
Economy
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $165.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $150.0 billion (5.3 percent) in the second.
Personal current taxes increased $14.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $30.9 billion in the second.
Disposable personal income increased $151.2 billion (6.1 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $119.1 billion (4.8 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.
Personal outlays increased $129.1 billion (5.2 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $151.7 billion (6.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $86.5 billion in the third quarter, compared with $64.4 billion in the second. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 0.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the second. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on "Personal Saving" on BEA's Web site. For acomparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving inthe Federal Reserve Board's flow of funds accounts, go tohttp://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/Nipa-Frd.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 4.7 percent, or $157.9 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $13,926.7 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $216.9 billion.
BOX Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Economy
Next release -- November 29, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2007 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 2007
The 1990's were not nearly as good in some major areas, yet the Media was ebullient most of the time and their reporting almost never failed to reflect it.
Let's examine the economy right now
New jobs created September 2007 97,000
New jobs created since the Bush Tax Cuts 8.1 Million
No. of consecutive months of job growth 49
Unemployment rate 4.7 % Lower than average of the last 40 years
Increase in after tax per capita personal income of 12.5% an average of $3750 per person
Since the 2003 tax cuts, the country has added 1/3 of it's total wealth
Wages-adjusted for inflation-increased over the last 12 months by 2.2 % for a net increase of $1266 for a 2 wage earner family
Real GDP grew at a hefty annual rate of 3.8% for the 2nd quarter of 2007
Since coming out of the recession, the economy has averaged a healthy 2.7% growth rate and is in its sixth year of growth
Tax Revenues increased 6.7% to bring the highest amount of total revenues ever.
The Deficit Lower than the average of the last 40 years at 1.3%, also tiny compared to most industrialized world nations
ECONOMIC growth accelerated in the second quarter, according to the “final” estimates of the national income and produce accounts (NIPAs). Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.8 percent after increasing 0.6 percent in the first quarter.
1 The second-quarter growth rate was revised down 0.2 percentagepoint from the “preliminary” estimate (see page 3).
2 The second-quarter acceleration in real GDP growth primarily reflected a downturn in imports (subtracted in the derivation of GDP), upturns in Federal
Government spending and inventory investment, accelerations in exports, nonresidential structures, and equipment and software, and a smaller decrease in residentialinvestment (page 2). In contrast, consumer spending decelerated markedly.
3
●Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residentsincreased 3.8 percent, the same rate as in the first quarter. Energy prices accelerated sharply, and food prices decelerated slightly. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.5 percent after increasing 3.1 percent.●Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased0.6 percent after increasing 5.4 percent.
The slower real growth reflected a deceleration in current-dollarDPI and accelerating prices (as measured by the PCE implicit price deflator used to deflate DPI).●The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentageof current-dollar DPI, was 0.6 percent in the second quarter; in the first quarter, it was 1.0 percent.●Corporate profits increased $94.7 billion in the secondquarter, following an increase of $16.5 billion (see pages 4 and 5).
1.“Real” estimates are in chained (2000)
Today came the news that the deficit for fiscal 2007 was down to $161 billion, about half the average of the last 50 years
We continue to see an overwhelming lesson that tax cuts and incentives for the private sector yield greater growth, not tax increases which only inhibit growth.
Democrats are letting these tax cuts expire if they get their way.
The deficit has declined more rapidly, as a result of the Bush tax cuts, than it did in the 1990s after the Clinton tax increases.
DEMOCRATS ARE GETTING READY TO SPLURGE AGAIN.
WILL YOU LET IT HAPPEN?
STATE ECONOMIC GROWTH WIDESPREAD IN 2006
Advance 2006 and Revised 2003-2005 GDP-by-State Estimates
Newly available data on the state distribution of real GDP growth confirm that economic growth was widespread in 2006, as GDP grew in all states except Michigan, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis./1 Growth accelerated for the nation and most states compared with 2005. The ten fastest-growing states are all in three western regions—Rocky Mountain, Southwest or Far West.
his release provides NAICS-sector estimates only 6 months after the calendar year for the first time—a 4–month acceleration from previous release schedules./2 It completes the acceleration of the GDP-by-state estimates.Highlights for 2006
* The U.S. growth in real GDP by state was faster than the 1997-2005 average annual rate; six of the eight BEA regions experienced faster growth as well (chart 2). * Growth in the private services-producing sector was strong in nearly all states and continued to account for most growth. * Four of the fastest-growing states—Arizona, Idaho, Utah, and Washington—were also among the fastest-growing states in 2005. * Delaware had the highest per capita real GDP. The five states with the highest per capita real GDP are all in two eastern regions—New England or Mideast.
Revisions to the Estimates for 2003–2005
Overall, the revisions had a moderate impact on relative growth across states. The first–time accelerated industry estimates for 2005, released October 26, 2006, indicated successfully whether a state's growth was high or low (relative to national growth) for nearly 80 percent of the states.
For 2003–2005, the annual revisions to percent change were less than or equal to three percentage points, in absolute terms. Many of the revisions were less than one percentage point.
The revisions to the GDP–by–state estimates for 2003–2005 incorporate new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, specifically the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) for 2005 and the State and Local Government Finance data for 2004. These estimates also incorporate the annual revision to BEA's GDP–by–industry estimates released April 24, 2007 and state personal income estimates for 2003–2005 released March 27, 2007.
Revisions to the Estimates for 2003–2005
IN THE second quarter of 2007, real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated according to the “advance” estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs).1 Real GDP increased 3.4 percent after increasing 0.6 percent in the first quarter (chart 1 and table 1).2
The acceleration primarily reflected a downturn in imports (which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP), upturnsin Federal Government spending and in private inventory investment, accelerations in exports and in nonresidential structures, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment.3
In contrast, consumer spending decelerated, especially spending for goods.●
Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residentsincreased 3.9 percent after increasing 3.8 percent.
Energy prices accelerated, and food prices decelerated slightly. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.7 percent, compared with a 3.1percent increase in the first quarter.●Real disposable personal income (DPI) decreased 0.8 percent after increasing 5.9 percent. The downturn reflected a deceleration in current-dollar DPI and an acceleration in the personal consumption expenditures implicit price deflator that is used to deflate current-dollar DPI.●The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentageof current-dollar DPI, was 0.6 percent in the second quarter; in the first quarter, it was 1.1 percent. The NIPA estimates for the first quarter of 2007 and for 2004–2006 have been revised as part of the regular annual NIPA revision. See “Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts” in this issue.1.Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, preliminary, and final) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data. More information can be found at
Economy
Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.2.“Real” estimates are in chained (2000) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures.3.In this article, “consumer spending” refers to the NIPA series “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
Real GDP:
Percent change from the preceding quarter 10 8 6 4 2 0 Consumer spending Nonresidential fixed investment Inventory investment Exports Government spending Residential fixed investment Percentage points at an annual rate Imports Seasonally adjusted annual rates Contributions to the increase in real GDP in 2007:II Prices: Percent change from the preceding quarter DPI: Percent change from the preceding quarter U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES
June 2007
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted forseasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $373.9 billion, a decrease of 0.9percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2006.
Total sales for the April through June 2007 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2007 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (± 0.7%) to +1.5 percent (± 0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.0 percent (±0.7%) from May 2007, but were 3.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstoreretailers were up 9.5 percent (±4.5%) from June 2006 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 7.0 percent (±1.7%)from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate.
U.S. industrial production increased 0.5% last month, an encouraging sign as the nation's economy ended the first half on a positive note. Manufacturing output rose 0.6%, a bouncing back from a flat reading in May. Led by higher auto output the increase was broad-based.
The Federal Reserve reported that American industry operated at 81.7% of capacity last month, up 0.3 percentage point from May and above the 1972-2005 average of 81%.
News from the U.S. Department of Labor brought the news that the producer-price index fell 0.2% in June on lower oil prices. Prices excluding food and energy were up 0.3% after rising 0.2% in May.
The consumer-price index report is due out today.
Personal income increased $47.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)increased $37.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent.
Secretary Gutierrez Praises Rising Exports
Economy
WASHINGTON—U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlo M. Gutierrez today issued the following statement on the release of the May 2007 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report by the Department’s U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Today’s report shows that U.S. exports increased by 10.8 percent to $644.1 billion year-to-date (through May) over the same period in 2006. Imports increased 4.5 percent to $939.6 billion. Although there was a small increase in the trade deficit between April and May, on a year-to-date basis, the deficit narrowed 7.0 percent or $22.3 billion compared to the same period in 2006.
“These are strong numbers. Exports are growing more than twice as fast as imports. The trade statistics show – when it comes to the U.S. economy and boosting jobs, trade matters. Increased exports create higher paying jobs here in America for our workers and helps drive our national prosperity.
“America benefits enormously from trade by increasing exports to markets around the world. Free trade agreements (FTAs) help our companies, farmers and manufacturers sell American goods and services to new markets around the world. Our FTAs are only 7.5 percent of global GDP, but remarkably, more than 42 percent of all U.S. exports are headed to our FTA partners. Last year, exports to the 11 countries with which we implemented FTAs between 2001 and 2006 grew faster than U.S. exports to the rest of the world.
“The May 10th bipartisan agreement on trade, presents an incredible opportunity to expand this record of success by moving forward on pending free trade agreements with Peru, Colombia, Panama and Korea. U.S. exporters need these agreements.
“In addition to their enormous geopolitical importance, our trade agreements with Peru, Colombia, Panama and Korea will level the playing field for American businesses, workers and farmers.
“Failing to provide Peru, Colombia and Panama with opportunities to advance economically could push them towards alternative, damaging visions offered by others. Economic growth empowers people with the tools to decrease poverty, encourage creativity, innovation and individualism—delivering true social justice to all. These agreements will further open markets in countries that already receive duty-free treatment for the vast majority of their products entering the U.S.
“The U.S.- Korea Free Trade Agreement signed on June 30 is the biggest trade deal for the United States in nearly 15 years. The Korea FTA opens a huge Asian market to U.S. exporters and will allow the U.S. to diversify our trade in Asia.
“The Administration is committed to the May 10th bipartisan agreement and I look forward to working with Congress to pass these historic free trade agreements. I hope Congress will show good faith to our trading partners by taking legislative action on Peru this July.”
Background:Bilateral free trade agreements are one of the best ways to open up foreign markets to U.S. exporters. Currently more than 100 regional trade agreements are being negotiated around the world. Today, the United States has FTAs implemented with 14 countries. Last year, trade with countries with which the United States has FTAs was significantly greater than their relative share of the global economy. Although comprising 7.5 percent of global GDP, not including the United States, those FTA countries accounted for more than 42 percent of U.S. exports.
According to the Foreign Trade Division of the U.S. Census Bureau, last year the U.S. exported more than $32.4 billion worth of products to Korea, increasing 44 percent since 2002. Peru and Colombia both increased imports from the U.S. by more than 87 percent, purchasing more than $2.9 and $6.7 billion respectively. Exports to Panama experienced the greatest percentage change, increasing more than 92 percent since 2002, with more than $2.7 billion in products exported in 2006.
For more information, please visit http://trade.gov/fta/index.asp.
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The Economy-The Latest
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR VETOES TAX INCREASE
Economy
From The Wall Street Journal
June 5, 2007
Last month the Democrats who run the Legislature in St. Paul pushed through a big tax and spending increase in their $35 billion state budget. Last week Mr. Pawlenty responded by vetoing all six of the spending and tax bills the Democrats sent him. The usual media and interest group suspects are upset, but Mr. Pawlenty is rallying his own supporters and making himself a defender of the taxpaying middle class.
In Minnesota, as in many other states last November, Democrats picked up big majorities in both the state House and Senate. First on the Democratic wish list was a budget plan of the kind now being promoted by the party's Presidential candidates: Offer a few tax savings to the middle class but whack "the rich" with a huge tax hike, and use the revenue windfall to finance teacher pay raises, "universal health care," $200 million in subsidies for the Mall of America, and even a pay raise for legislators.
The Democratic plan would have raised the state's top marginal income tax rate to 9.7% from 7.85%. That's right up there with California, New York and New Jersey in the top five of confiscatory taxation states. Democrats also proposed a gas tax hike, a new real estate tax, and a tax on cell phones. In all, Democrats wanted to raise some $5 billion in income taxes, and new taxes on gas, beer, real estate transactions, cell phones and even a strange new death tax: a tripling of taxes on hearses. These would have raised taxes by about $2,000 for every income tax filer in the state. The Minnesota League of Taxpayers parodied the budget plan as here a tax, there a tax, everywhere a tax, tax.
Economy Slower This Quarter But Outlook Still Positive
E&E Series: Prices and Profits
Energy & Entrepreneurs #6
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.
Economics 101: Price and Profits
by Raymond J. Keating
When prices rise and profits increase for energy companies, many politicians and activists protest, and proclaim that something must be done. By something being down, of course, they are talking about government intervention, such as through various forms of regulation, mandates, subsidies, price controls and/or taxes.
These folks need a brief refresher on the role prices and profits play in a market economy.
Prices and profits serve as the signals that the market system uses to allocate resources to their highest and best uses based on the preferences of consumers.
On the demand side, increasing energy prices serve as a conservation measure, as consumers reduce demand when prices rise. While demand for gasoline and electricity, for example, can be fairly inelastic, consumers still respond to varying degrees.
On the producer side, increased profits provide incentives to boost energy exploration and development. Profits show that resources are being used to produce goods of value, and that value exceeds the costs of production. Also, higher energy prices provide added incentives to develop alternative energy sources.
Economy
But does the market really work when it comes to energy? The answer is yes.
First, let's put energy earnings in perspective. This volatile industry experiences extremes in profitability over time. Consider some data from the American Petroleum Institute:
• In 2006, net income as a share of sales registered 9.5% for the oil and natural gas industry, which compared to 8.2% for all manufacturing. Factor out the dismal performance by the automobile industry, and manufacturing in general matched the oil and gas industry's 9.5% earnings.
• As for return on investment, from 2000 to 2005, oil and gas production averaged 16.7% and U.S. refining and marketing came in at 12.3%, versus 10.4% for the S&P Industrials. However, a longer term view points to a different story. For example, the average over the past 10 years was 13.5% for oil and gas production and 10% for refining and manufacturing, but 14.7% for S&P Industrials. Go back over 25 years, and oil and gas came in at 9.9% and refining and marketing at 6.8%, as opposed to 12% for the S&P Industrials.
So much for supposedly the greedy, oligopolistic energy industry.
Now, getting back to how the market responds to higher prices and profits, note the following from recent API reports:
• "U.S. first quarter 2007 drilling estimates hit a 21-year high and were nearly twice the level of first quarter drilling activity recorded during the 1990s."
• A chart in a report titled "Putting earnings into perspective" reveals how strikingly new oil and natural gas investment has tracked with earnings from 1992 to 2006. It was noted in the report: "New investment last year (2006) in the U.S. alone reached more than $174 billion (a 29 percent increase from 2005), and between 1992 and 2006, the U.S. industry invested more than $1.25 trillion in a range of long-term energy initiatives compared to net income of $900 billion." Investment has accelerated dramatically from about $40 billion in 2002 to that $174 billion in 2006.
This is exactly what one would expect given changes in prices and profits over the past few years.
Economy
If policymakers considered the actual economics at work, they'd realize that profits are a good thing, not bad. Responding to increased profitability for energy companies by further raising those companies' costs through taxes and regulation makes no sense as market signals would get distorted. After all, reducing profitability by hiking costs sends a clear signal for less investment, exploration and development. That does nothing positive for consumers, businesses and the economy in general.
Instead, our elected officials should be working diligently to reduce unnecessary governmental costs imposed on the energy sector. In addition, they should lift limits or restrictions on domestic energy exploration - such as offshore, and in ANWR and other federal lands - that artificially restrict supply and work to push up energy prices.
Prices and profits are far better guides for running the energy sector of our economy, than is pandering politics.
_______
Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council.
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer 1-17-07
WASHINGTON - The economy entered the new year in pretty good shape, with most parts of the country enjoying moderate growth, businesses boosting hiring and workers getting bigger paychecks.ADVERTISEMENT
That mostly positive snapshot of business conditions around the country, released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, comes as the United States continues to deal with strains from the housing slump.
"Most reports ... indicated that economic activity expanded at a moderate pace," the Federal Reserve said. The survey is based on information supplied by 12 regional Federal Reserve banks and collected before Jan. 8...
The economy pumped out 157,000 new Jobs in May.
Many economist forecast a reasonably strong economy for the remainder of 2007.
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The economy is a perennial election-year issue - and this year will be no different.
Americans will also have a choice between two vastly difference approaches - and that's very good news for Republicans.
...For the American economy is the strongest in the world - and it is growing faster than any other major industrialized country.
Growth was more than 4 percent in the third quarter - above the average in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
We have added almost four-and-a-half million jobs in just over two years.
Employment is near an all-time high. The unemployment rate is below 5 percent - below the average in each of the past 3 decades.
Core inflation remains low. The national homeownership rate remains near a record high. Sales of new and existing homes each reached a new record in the third quarter of 2005.
Real disposable personal income is up. Since the start of 2003, the Dow is up more than 25 percent and the NASDAQ is up more than 50 percent.
Productivity is also up. From 1973 to 1995, productivity in America grew at 1.4 percent, doubling our standard of living every 50 years.
But over the past five years, productivity averaged 3.4 percent, doubling our standard of living twice as fast. And the more productive our workforce is, the faster incomes go up.
Since the writing of this article, job creation since 2003 has risen to 5.7 million new jobs.
Payrolls have increased for 36 consecutive months.
GDP for the first half of 2006 was up a very healthy 4.2 %, with a strong chance of topping 3 % for the 3rd quarter- we’ll see those results around election time.
Economy
Productivity is still superb.
Unemployment is near the lowest rate in years.
Inflation is low. The Federal Reserve has not raised rates at its last two meetings, and hundreds of billions have been added to household financial assets and GDP.
Today September 27, 2006, the Dow finished just 22 points from its all time high closing.
Can the Mainstream Media give us its usual negative headlines despite all of this good news?